Jobs Being Replaced By Technology – Research finds that nearly half of jobs are at risk of automation, which could free people up to pursue more interesting careers.
A PROVERB of self-inflicted anxiety has gripped the West. Just try typing “Will machines…” into Google. The algorithm offers to complete the sentence with different degrees of concern: “…take my job?”; “…take all the jobs?”; “… instead of people?”; “…took over the world?”
Jobs Being Replaced By Technology
Robots doing work are no longer science fiction. In 2013 Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne of Oxford University used—what else?—a machine learning algorithm to test how easily 702 types of jobs in America could be automated. They concluded that fully 47% could be mechanized “in the next decade or two”.
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A new working paper from the OECD, a club of super-rich countries, uses a similar approach, looking at other developed economies. Its strategy is different from Mr. Frey and Mr. Osborne for evaluating individual job performance within a specific job, based on a 2015 skills survey. Overall, the study finds that 14% of jobs in 32 countries are highly vulnerable, defined as having at least a 70% chance of being automated. The other 32% are less vulnerable, probably between 50% and 70%. At current employment levels, that puts 210m jobs at risk in the 32 countries in the study.
The pain will not be shared equally. The study finds large differences across countries: jobs in Slovakia are at twice the risk of those in Norway. In general, workers in rich countries appear to be less vulnerable than those in low-income countries. But there is a huge gap even between countries with the same wealth.
Differences in organizational structure and industry mix both play a role, but the former is more important. In South Korea, for example, 30% of jobs are in manufacturing, compared to 22% in Canada. However, on average, jobs in Korea are harder to do than in Canada. This may be because Korean employers have found better ways to combine, in the same work, and without reducing productivity, both traditional and social and creative tasks, which computers or robots cannot do. A more obscure explanation would be “survivor bias”: the remaining jobs in Korea seem difficult to automate because Korean firms have already outsourced most of the automated jobs to machines. In a few decades, twenty or thirty years – or soon and their related technologies will be everywhere as mobile phones are today, at least that is predicted by Bill Gates; and we would be hard-pressed to find a roboticist, automation expert or economist who would make a strong case against this. The Robotics Revolution promises a number of compelling benefits (especially in healthcare) and groundbreaking ideas, but it may also come at a great cost.
We find ourselves faced with an unsolvable paradox: On the one hand technological progress increases productivity and well-being, while on the other hand it tends to reinforce inequality.
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By Stuart Elliott visiting analyst of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), who happens to be on leave from the Evaluation and Evaluation Board of the National Research Council, shows that technology may replace ‘workers in 80 percent of current jobs. .’
In his research Elliot relies on advances in speech, thinking and movement to show how robots and technology can replace jobs. I agree with the general thoughts of the research, although I believe that speech recognition is now more advanced than Elliot’s states. This factor alone will lead to a decline in many jobs, such as translation, over the next five years.
Elliott is not the first to say that robots and technology will have such a big impact on employment or inequality. Michael Hammer, a former MIT professor and a key innovator in workplace redesign in the 1990s estimated that 80 percent of middle management jobs were at risk of being eliminated due to automation.
R Professor Tyler Cowen also predicts an empty labor market, with no middle-skilled, low-wage jobs, where 80% or more of our citizens will not make it. They will be a permanent lower class, unable to improve their environment.
Jobs Least Likely To Be Replaced By Robots
This ‘underclass’ may happen sooner than Cowen predicted. Although there are ‘short-term’ changes in employment numbers, most are in low-wage sectors, 73% of ‘new’ jobs are at the bottom of the wage tower and part-time rather than permanent positions.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that among the fastest-growing job categories over the next decade will be “health care occupations” (nurses, orderlies, and assistants) and “food preparation and service workers” – the lowest-paying occupations. .
As recently as last month the FT reported: “New technologies are changing the makeup of the US economy but creating only small numbers of jobs, according to a major statutory survey of businesses, which is conducted only once every five years.”
The authors say: “Digital technology is changing rapidly, but organizations and skills are not keeping pace. As a result, millions of people are left behind. Their income and their jobs are destroyed, leaving them in a very bad situation.”
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Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier this year, Google’s Eric Schmidt warned that the problem of new technologies that are radically changing and changing jobs will be “central” over the next two or three decades.
Increasingly, machines are providing not only the brawns but also the brains, and that raises the question of where humans fit into the picture. Earlier this year, State Secretary Jörg Asmussen at the German Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs emphasized this when he said:
“Digitalization, or the “second machine age” (as in the title of the best-seller by Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAffee), is just beginning. It is in the process of liberating and eventually replacing our physical work with our intellectual work. This trend will be a threat to mental workers. like accountants and stock market traders. And supermarket clerks will also soon be a thing of the past.”
“Robots and other automated devices have increased factory automation to such an extent that factories are the source of all jobs. The next big target for automation has been office work and it continues. “
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In the US manufacturing sector there was a strong increase in sales of 8 percent between 2007 and 2012 but with a sharp decrease in employment, the industry shed 2.1m jobs and its income fell by $20 billion.
About one in 25 jobs in Japan is a robot, this is partly due to an aging population and a declining birth rate, which means fewer workers, but it is also true that global business wants to drive productivity, efficiency, and success. in high places with traffic lights.
, Joel Mokyr argued: “In Britain the high level of labor available to support innovation, both domestic and foreign, helped create the Industrial Revolution.” Dig a little further and Mokyr refers to: “the top 3 to 5 percent of workers by skill: engineers, mechanics, mill designers, chemists, watch and metal makers, skilled carpenters and metal workers, wheelwrights, and similar workers. “
It was a minority of working people who had the skills to help develop the Industrial Revolution, others had to learn new skills to adapt to the changes in technology. This time is no different. Just as each revolution sets a higher level of productivity, each revolution requires a new set of skills to overcome resistance to the old, deeply ingrained ideas and practices.
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Despite job losses in the US manufacturing sector as more and more skilled engineers are hired to maintain complex machinery and receive higher wages, the annual wage per worker in the manufacturing sector increased from $45,818 in 2007 to $52,686 in 2012.
Robotics, artificial intelligence, automated software and connected networks will become more powerful and capable in the future, and have an even greater impact on jobs, skills and the economy.
The message to all of us can be summed up in a quote from Abraham Lincoln’s second address to Congress.
In his paper Elliot raises a very good question: “Even if other jobs are available, how will the laid-off workers acquire the skills needed to do the new jobs?” This should be a wake up call. We all have to think seriously about our future and learn the skills that will give us the best chance to work with the Machines. I will repeat Lincoln’s statement, as that is a great way to take it. “Since our case is new, we have to rethink, re-do.” These are exciting and challenging times… In October 2020, the World Economic Forum (WEF) published the Future of Jobs Report, an in-depth study of the future of employment.
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In this report, the WEF surveyed key decision makers working for 300 of the world’s largest companies. The study found that 80% of them accelerate the automation of processes and 50% increase the automation of tasks in their companies.
On the other hand, the consulting firm McKinsey & Co projects that by the end of ten years, 30% of the hours worked worldwide can
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